Which sectors might see supply disruptions due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Just as the world was starting to recover from challenges caused by COVID-19 and other logistical issues, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is likely to create additional reverberations in global supply chains. The chart I’m sharing here is only a small part of the story (and I couldn’t find similar data for Ukraine), but it is instructive.

The left hand shows the gross value added by sector in industries from which Russia exports goods and services to there rest of the world. Unsurprisingly, the biggest exports (on this measure — but the picture would be very similar if using gross exports) are in the oil, gas and other extractive industries, as well as wholesale and logistics (the “Distribution, hospitality” sector shown). [The biggest sub-cateogories in this rather aggregated sector are land transport, transport via pipelines, and wholesale and retail.]

The right hand part of the chart shows the sectors in which the exported goods and services are consumed. [In the OECD Trade in Value Added database, these are called the “industries of final demand”.] Of course, a lot has been said about the potential implications of the conflict for energy supplies. But there are several other sectors that are likely to be impacted.

In particular, the chemicals, construction, and transportation sectors are likely to face either supply shortages, price increases, or both. The food manufacturing and automotive manufacturing sectors are also strongly connected to exports from Russia.