Improvements in work or financial circumstances have not improved people’s wellbeing as much
As “freedom day” approaches, debates about the trade-offs around managing the COVID-19 pandemic seem to be intensifying. The “hawks” want to continue restrictions to avoid a potential surge in infections, and more importantly, hospitalisations and deaths. The “doves” understand the risks, but are concerned about the economy, employment and incomes. Those of us refusing to have a view — because the analysis to arrive at one is near-impossible — tend to argue that whatever the other arguments, we should focus on the “no regrets” action of accelerating vaccination programmes as much as possible. Not that there is any reason to believe that governments around the world are not already trying their best to do exactly that.
Amidst all this debate, I still think many commentators, and perhaps decision makers, are missing an important point: while lives and livelihoods matter, life satisfaction — i.e., the quality of our lives — matters even more. While no amount of money can console those who have lost loved ones in the pandemic, money on its own is also unlikely to significantly improve other aspects of their wellbeing. This is a matter of simple maths: for the average person in Britain, health and relationships are simply much more important than employment or income.
And this is also where it gets really complicated. Anticipating the quality-of-life implications of the pandemic, and associated social distancing restrictions, remains tricky. How many will suffer from long COVID, on average for how long, and how bad will it be for them? How many will face long delays for routine, or even urgent, non-COVID-related health care? And possibly least visibly but most insidiously, how many will suffer from near- or long-term mental health issues, such as anxiety and depression? For example, in the period from January to March 2021, rates of depression among the UK’s adult population were more than double the rates observed pre-COVID.
The truth is that no technocrat, however clever, is likely to know answers to these questions. That’s why it is so important that — alongside all kinds of other data — we also reflect on what people are actually saying, online, to their friends and family, at their workplace, and in national surveys. It is the last data source that I wanted to explore in more detail in this blog (and associated chart).
The analysis in the chart shows the change in proportion of people reporting a negative impact from COVID-19 by topic. Overall, the columns are positive: things improved significantly between April to July 2020 and the same months in 2021. There was a more than 40% reduction in people saying that the pandemic was having an impact on either their finances or work. In July 2021, only around 10% of respondents said COVID-19 was affecting their finances, and around 20% said it was affecting their work.
The improvements in the more important factors* — relationships and health — were less impressive, though. Pandemic-induced concerns about relationships went away for only 15% of people previously identifying them as an issue. Problems around access to healthcare were also slightly less frequent in 2021 compared to 2020. Worries about COVID-19’s impact on health actually increased, despite the successful vaccination programme, albeit rather marginally.
Overall, then, while a smaller number of people in 2021 (compared to 2020) reported negative impacts from COVID-19 on their wellbeing (last column in the chart), the improvement in wellbeing was significantly less than the improvement in more “material” factors, such as finances and work. This is to be expected, given previous literature, but it was rather striking to see this mirrored in the data so clearly. [*I also ran a multiple regression to see which factors predicted changes in the proportion of people who said their wellbeing was affected, and health and relationships came out as the only statistically significant explanatory variables.]
So, clearly we should remain concerned for the thousands who may yet be infected by the virus, the millions who remain on furlough, not to mention the many families or individuals for whom finances are tight or non-COVID health issues are pressing. However, taking a step back and considering the lives of the entire population, I think we should also be worried about (and find out ways to help) the 22 million (about 40% of the adult population) who say that the pandemic is still having a negative impact on their wellbeing.
