December 9th: edging towards the “new normal” in the UK

Earlier in the year, I concluded that the only way to get my head around what was going on with COVID-19 and related economic phenomena was to put it in some kind of context. I’ve found this format of comparing key data — acrosss countries and years — to be really helpful in staying up to date on the situation without getting too confused. This week seemed like a good time to refresh the picture.

The chart shows various key variables for each week in both 2020 (black line) and 2021 (cyan blue line). Broadly, having felt a bit down with all the doom and gloom in the media this week, this actually significantly improved my mood. The current situation is quite different to (and better than) this time last year! Here’s the summary (by numer of panel in the chart):

1. The number of COVID-19 cases per inhabitant is significantly higher than this time last year. Some of this may of course reflect more testing and recording of the cases, rather than underlying infection rates.
2. The number of deaths with COVID-19 per inhabitant is significantly lower than this time last year. The vaccinations really seem to be making a difference.
3. Even with the latest changes to “plan B”, COVID-19 related restrictions are lower than last year, also no doubt helped by good (but not perfect) vaccination coverage. However, they are by no means low: we are still far from “normal” (which would be a zero on the chart).
4. Overall economic support from government is significantly lower than last year, now that the furlough scheme has ended. Even so, unemployment has not shot up dramatically, as most employees have found new jobs in the buyoant labour market.
5. Retail and recreation activity continues to recover as we head into the holiday season. If measured by mobility, activity is almost back to pre-pandemic levels, when in the same week last year it was trailing by around 30%.
6. Workplace mobility is still way below pre-pandemic levels. Somewhat higher than the same time last year, mobility to workplaces nevertheless remains at around 20% lower than the pre-pandemic baseline.

Of course, we are not out of the woods yet; global trade winds, fiscal and monetary policy, and further mutations of the virus are just a few of the huge uncertainties that might change things. But fingers crossed that we can remain optimistic and positive over the Christmas period, whatever the New Year brings.